The picture of Africa that emerges from scientific studies and observational data is one in which climate patterns have already changed in many parts of the continent. As this report highlights, considerable uncertainties exist in relation to the extent to which regions and countries in Africa will be affected by climate change.

In recent years, several regions have experienced destructive extreme weather events. Examples include events such as the severe floods in South Africa in 2019; floods in 2020 across East Africa affected six million people in Somalia, Ethiopia, Burundi, Djibouti, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Tanzania and Uganda by destroying livelihoods and homes; drought in 2015–2016 affected more than 15 million people in East Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia) and Southern Africa. Tropical cyclone Idai, one of the most severe ever recorded, made landfall in southeast Africa and was followed the next month by tropical cyclone Kenneth, displacing thousands of people, ruining homes, causing a serious outbreak of cholera and an estimated US$2.2 billion damage to infrastructure. 

Attributing extreme weather events entirely to anthropogenic climate change is difficult because of natural climate variability. However, the general scientific consensus is that global climate change will lead to more extreme climate events. In Africa, modelling projections indicate that by the end of the twenty-first century the mean annual temperature increase for much of the continent will exceed 2 ℃ – or fall within the range of 3 ℃ to 6 ℃ if high emissions continue. Heatwaves are projected to occur more often, at higher intensities, and last for longer under enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations. Rainfall projections for the continent are less certain because of the complexities involved in modelling multiple weather systems, but model projections are in general agreement that in comparison to the present, by 2050 there will be decreased rainfall in Northern and Southern Africa and increased rainfall across Central and East Africa). The likelihood is that the Southern African region will experience landfall from fewer but more intense tropical cyclones.

The broad conclusions drawn in the Greenpeace report Facing the Weather Gods, which was published in 2013, still stand. The expectations include those that the continent will experience more rapid temperature rises than the global average, and will experience increasing variance in rainfall. This report, Weathering the Storm, presents material that confirms and strengthens the predictions made in 2013. 

Although there have been advances in scientific understanding of climate systems in the intervening years since Facing the Weather Gods was written, substantial gaps remain that require more research to fill (see Box 6). Climate modelling has become more sophisticated, but for Africa there is, as yet, no robust evidence that improvements in the resolution of the models have led to significantly improved climate change predictions. There is still a lack of reliable observational data for most regions across the continent and, therefore, projections – which are based on observational data – are questionable. 

Provision must be made now to build resilience to extreme weather events to safeguard communities across the continent and to ensure food security in future decades. There is an urgent need to stop greenhouse gas emissions at source in a transition away from fossil fuels and to not address the growing climate crisis simply by relying on adaptation and mitigation alone. 

7.0 Definitions and assumptions

African continent This report focuses on sub-Saharan Africa.

Ambient temperature In the context of weather, the ambient temperature is the air temperature. The temperature that a person feels may also be influenced by humidity or wind speed, but those will not affect the air temperature.

Climate forcing (also called radiative forcing) Earth receives light energy from the Sun. Some of that energy is reflected back into space, and some remains in the Earth system. The difference between the energy coming from the Sun and the energy remaining in the Earth’s atmosphere is what causes global heating; this excess energy is called ‘climate forcing’ or ‘radiative forcing’. The Earth’s atmosphere retains the necessary warmth to support life because the mix of atmospheric gases – the so-called ‘greenhouse gases’ – keep some of the incoming energy in the atmosphere. To maintain steady atmospheric conditions, energy in must equal energy out. Higher amounts of greenhouse gases prevent more energy from returning to space and lead to positive climate forcing, and the Earth’s atmosphere warms. Human activities including burning fossil fuels release greenhouse gases causing long-term warming of the atmosphere and the changes to the climate which result from this are referred to as ‘anthropogenic climate change’.

Cumulative heat This is a new conceptual metric that aims to quantify the duration and intensity of heat waves during a season. It is the sum of each daily temperature anomaly above the threshold required to be classed as a heatwave for the duration of all heatwaves in a year. For example, if a heatwave is defined as ambient temperature above 30 ℃, and the temperature recorded is 33 ℃, the temperature anomaly produced is 3 ℃. If the period of the heatwave lasted for 5 days, the ‘cumulative heat’ produced is 15 ℃ (Perkins-Kirkpatrick & Lewis, 2020). The metric is useful for identifying regional heatwave trends – that is, heatwaves occurring across a region over a decades, although it may not necessarily be as effective when comparing different locations because the heat required to generate a heatwave in a hot, humid location is very different to the heat needed to generate a heatwave in a cold, dry place location. 

Drought In agriculture, drought is generally defined as a decline in soil moisture caused by lack of rainfall, an increase in evapotranspiration caused by high temperature, or a combination of the two. Dry air and high wind speeds also contribute (Cook et al., 2014). 

Dry bulb temperature Typically the measurement of ambient air temperature using a thermometer in a site away from rain and sunlight.

El Niño A climate phenomenon which causes above-average temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and nearby land areas. See ENSO, below.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) An alternating interaction between the surface water of the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere above it which has big impacts on the weather patterns in the South Pacific and nearby land masses. It occurs irregularly on time scales of a few years between its two opposing phases El Niño and La Niña. During the El Niño phase, temperatures are above-average in the eastern part of the southern Pacific and nearby land masses (northern west coast of South America). During La Niña conditions, this area experiences relatively cold temperatures. Because the opposing phases of ENSO are large-scale differences in the atmospheric and oceanic circulation, it has effects on weather worldwide. Africa, South America and Australia are all impacted by ENSO (for more details see the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate).

Extreme weather events These are climate-related events, primarily floods, droughts, tropical storms or cyclones and wildfires (but not earthquakes). 

Heatwave The World Meteorological Organisation defines a heatwave as: “A period of marked unusual hot weather (maximum, minimum and daily average temperature) over a region persisting at least three consecutive days during the warm period of the year based on local (station-based) climatological conditions, with thermal conditions recorded above given thresholds.” This definition works on the understanding that different regions of the world and the local communities will be adapted to slightly different temperatures, therefore establishing a set heatwave threshold to cover all regions of the world would not be appropriate.

La Niña The opposite of El Niño, with sustained cooling of the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere above it. See ENSO, above.

Representative Concentration Pathways The Representative Concentration Pathways were developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). RCP8.5 is a widely used pathway and is also the strongest of the four RCP scenarios. RCP8.5 is a very high-emissions global heating scenario and was developed as a ‘worst-case’ scenario, that imagines no climate mitigation policies are implemented, fossil fuel use is widespread and no measures are taken to reduce carbon emissions. RCP8.5 assumes 8.5 W/m² radiative forcing by 2100. Three other scenarios were developed to predict the outcome of future emissions: RCP2.6, RCP2.5 and RCP6. The RCP scenarios do not make consistent socioeconomic assumptions and RCP8.5 has attracted controversy in the literature for being unrealistic, but analysis has found that of the four RCP pathways, RCP8.5 is the best match for emissions between 2005–2020 (Schwalm et al., 2020). When used in conjunction with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) a more comprehensive prediction is possible. A full explanation of climate modelling scenarios and their development is available from Carbon Brief at: https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-high-emissions-rcp8-5-global-warming-scenario

Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) Five different scenarios or ‘pathways’ that consider how social, economic and demographics might change globally in the future. The SSPs imagine scenarios in which no climate mitigation policy exists. They range from SSP1, which predicts a rise of 3-3.5 ℃ by 2100 to SSP5, which predicts global heating of 4.7–5.1 ℃ above pre-industrial levels. The pathways were published in 2016 and are now beginning to be used in climate models alongside the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to help predict how greenhouse gas emissions may change. More detail on SSPs is available from Carbon Brief at: https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Is used to characterize drought. On short timescales, it may include soil moisture. At longer timescales it may include groundwater and reservoir storage. It does not include changes in evapotranspiration.

Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) Is a multiscalar drought index developed by Vicente-Serrano et al. (2010) and uses precipitation and temperature data to determine the potential impact of climate change on drought severity. A multiscalar approach can incorporate different water sources and distinguish different types of drought. SPEI is used to indicate the maximum drought stress over a surface by comparing the highest evapotranspiration with the amount of precipitation. 

Wet bulb temperature The temperature of the air taken using a thermometer with a wet sleeve over the bulb to enable the measurement of the moisture content of the air or the relative humidity. Wet bulb temperature is lower than dry bulb temperature unless the air is 100% humid.

Recommendations by Greenpeace Africa

Globally, all weather is now taking place in a climate changed world. The link between the burning of fossil fuels and the increased atmospheric carbon dioxide that drives the climate crisis is clear. The African continent is no exception and the scientific research used in writing this report predicts an Africa in which extreme weather events will become more commonplace as a result of temperature rises on land and at sea. In addition, where some extreme weather events have taken place, scientists have managed to identify a climate ‘fingerprint’ associated with them.

Globally, floods, heatwaves, droughts and cyclones appear to be becoming more frequent, more intense or both as well as less predictable, whereas associated events that are temperature related, such as wildfires, also appear to be becoming more common.

For the people living in Africa, extreme weather translates into death, food insecurity and water shortages, disease, displacement, poverty and conflict. The biodiversity on which many Africans depend is threatened with accelerated rates of extinction by global heating. 

Apart from the major emitters which  includes South Africa and Nigeria, African countries are responsible for an extremely small proportion of the greenhouse gases emitted that are driving global heating. It would be unjust to expect Africans simply to accept the predictions outlined in this report as a ‘new normal’ or expect them to rely on external aid to deal with the consequences. Accordingly, African countries must face the growing crisis by acknowledging and declaring a climate emergency and taking urgent action where they can build resilience and proactively choose socio-economic pathways that are not based on a reliance on fossil fuels. 

Weather, climate data and information

There is a need to strengthen existing databases and to develop new ones that curate data on observed weather and climate trends in Africa. This is critical both to understanding the changes that have occurred already, and to be able to project future changes and to plan accordingly. In order to do this, Africa collectively needs to acquire the skills to become a developer of regionally relevant numerical weather and climate models. 

In addition, African countries also need to be given a participative role in developing new databases and models rather than being dependent upon countries outside of Africa to produce relevant tools. Scientific understanding needs to be informed by indigenous knowledge, and research into the impacts of extreme weather need to be communicated widely in local and regional languages.

Oceans

This report makes clear the key role of the oceans in determining the weather that Africa experiences. The Indian Ocean Dipole, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) all are important drivers of African weather. All depend upon ocean temperature differences and changes in ocean currents and upwelling. The intensity of cyclones and the speed at which they move is governed largely by sea surface temperature (SST). Warmer air over the oceans holds more moisture giving rise to more extreme rainfall as part of these events. As temperatures continue to rise, these physical drivers of weather will increasingly be affected. 

Although not detailed in this report, increasing ocean temperatures threaten critical ecosystems such as coral reefs, and uptake of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is progressively turning ocean waters more acidic. Add to this the additional pressures from pollution and overfishing and the case for an agreed and unified approach to ocean protection becomes clear.

Accordingly, Greenpeace Africa is calling for a shared vision and ambition for ocean protection and conservation by African countries. This should include the adoption of measures to fully protect 30% of the world’s oceans by 2030.

Land use, food security and forests

Land use in Africa is critical to addressing the future impacts of extreme weather. Agriculture is a dominant component of economic activity across the continent, but is also extremely vulnerable to extreme weather events with many communities having limited capacities either to cope with specific events, or to adapt in the medium to long term. At the same time, land-use patterns outside of forested areas are increasingly shifting towards agriculture. The impacts of projected changes on rainfall and temperature upon agriculture and food security are likely to be profound both in established agricultural areas and in areas newly brought under cultivation.

At the same time, although not detailed in this report, forests play a key role in climate regulation, maintaining biodiversity and in protecting against some of the effects of extreme weather. Forests are increasingly vulnerable to extreme events. The Congo Basin rainforest, for example, is home to many indigenous peoples and local communities and hosts significant biodiversity. Like many global forests, the Congo Basin has been facing growing threats from resource extraction (timber and minerals), markedly increasing its vulnerability. 

African countries need to develop an holistic approach to agriculture and forests, which can achieve both food security and forest protection. Embracing ecological farming and building on traditional farming methods will be essential for climate crisis adaptation. Local food production will help to increase food security over aid dependency among communities that are exposed to the impacts of extreme weather events. 

For food security to be achieved in Africa, there needs to be an increase in capacity, skills and efficiency. Very significant yield losses of major crops are predicted as a result of climate change. Embracing ecological farming and building on traditional farming methods will be essential for climate adaptation. Skills can be enhanced through research and development based in part on indigenous skills. Improving networking and management systems and the creation of sustainable employment will help to reduce the high levels of inequality between rich and poor. Sustainable economic development in Africa is ultimately one key to assuring food security for African communities and protecting them to some degree from extreme weather events.

Energy

Nonetheless, while the majority of African countries are vulnerable to the impacts of extreme weather events, their contribution to greenhouse gas emissions has been minor in relation to the vast majority of historical emissions generated by developed countries. The energy pathways that are chosen now in Africa, however, will have significant implications for the prospects of limiting global heating to 1.5 ^oC. It is critical, therefore, for African countries to be aiming for 100% renewable energy.

African countries have some of the best renewable energy resources in the world. At the same time, energy poverty dominates across the continent. To address this situation, governments across Africa should be prioritising universal access to electricity through renewable energy investments, and should be avoiding the trap of dirty development based on fossil fuels. Renewable energy investments have a huge potential to save water, and to drive inclusive economic growth and job creation. If governments are serious about addressing the triple challenges of poverty, inequality and unemployment then barriers to renewable energy must be removed.

South Africa is a major emitter of greenhouse gases on the African continent and is the thirteenth biggest emitter in the world due to its almost complete reliance on coal. It is crucial that the South African government, in particular, prioritises raising ambitions to act on climate through a transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. A phase-out of coal use should be achieved by 2040. 

Greenpeace Africa’s vision for the future

While the ability to accurately predict the specific impacts of global heating on African societies remains limited, it is very clear that global heating acts as a threat multiplier, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities such as poverty and inequality by driving extreme weather events. Social and environmental justice in Africa are deeply connected, and we must prioritise an integrated and intersectional approach to dealing with the climate crisis by prioritising resilience and economic development pathways built on green jobs and ending energy poverty.

The African continent is highly vulnerable to the impacts of global heating, but African governments have an opportunity to collectively and individually act in ways that will build resilience and avoid catastrophic climate change. Addressing the climate emergency involves transitioning to 100% renewable energy, avoiding energy pathways based on fossil fuel extraction and also protecting the oceans, forests and food security.

 

Acknowledgements

Parts of this report that cover the occurrence and impact of heatwaves are taken from an internal briefing produced by the Greenpeace Research Laboratories in July 2020 titled ‘COVID-19 and extreme heat events’ authored by Kathryn Miller and Aidan Farrow. 

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Authors 

Kathryn A. Miller, Ndoni Mcunu, Andreas Anhäuser, Aidan Farrow, David Santillo, Paul Johnston.
Greenpeace Research Laboratories 
Innovations Centre Phase II 
University of Exeter 
Rennes Drive 
Exeter EX4 4RN 
United Kingdom 

Tal Harris, Sheila Kibughi, Chris Vlavianos, Melita Steele. 
Greenpeace Africa
PostNet Suite 125 
Private Bag X09 
Melville 
Johannesburg 2109 
South Africa

Suggested citation

Kathryn A. Miller, Ndoni Mcunu, Andreas Anhäuser, Aidan Farrow, David Santillo & Paul Johnston. Weathering the Storm: Extreme weather events and climate change in Africa. Greenpeace Research Laboratories Technical Report (Review) 04-2020